Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 22.864641 24.892074 27.085237 29.645732 32.568001 35.817091 39.727820
2025-11-23 19.543323 22.278058 25.443585 29.424077 34.361732 40.376606 48.404545
2025-11-30 17.225732 20.332396 24.121408 29.178609 35.906038 44.787751 57.843055
2025-12-07 15.588772 18.920502 23.160390 29.109769 37.520577 49.467267 68.731963
2025-12-14 14.264652 17.706567 22.241162 28.876520 38.763869 53.761843 80.160959
2025-12-21 13.617700 17.282152 22.279900 29.913414 41.936534 61.534385 99.699193
2025-12-28 12.697925 16.378498 21.528445 29.653715 43.014664 66.091588 115.053989
2026-01-04 11.981702 15.684714 20.989362 29.616359 44.399113 71.433775 134.120454
2026-01-11 11.456693 15.212419 20.716879 29.941022 46.418989 78.404880 160.167527
2026-01-18 10.872122 14.602223 20.171120 29.735826 47.429675 83.592667 184.610632
2026-01-25 10.355778 14.053642 19.668296 29.533584 48.393874 88.912625 212.780975
2026-02-01 9.923425 13.600781 19.275429 29.469225 49.602480 95.106592 248.309861
2026-02-08 9.484999 13.119683 18.813810 29.258490 50.542390 101.115840 289.384793
2026-02-15 9.079158 12.665543 18.363601 29.023255 51.405703 107.273823 338.175112
2026-02-22 8.705967 12.240833 17.930975 28.774541 52.203598 113.575096 396.312031
2026-03-01 8.394779 11.896998 17.609573 28.703401 53.394563 121.482736 476.274856
2026-03-08 8.082500 11.533580 17.228183 28.473140 54.175195 128.486003 565.599828
2026-03-15 7.988568 11.521471 17.456726 29.488374 58.185341 147.921781 805.773913
2026-03-22 7.710772 11.187843 17.089161 29.233576 58.930167 156.302043 983.257903
2026-03-29 7.483635 10.927801 16.837174 29.196811 60.252205 167.636398 1259.470557
2026-04-05 7.319918 10.766692 16.754530 29.514808 62.615452 184.676264 1768.698421
2026-04-12 7.098235 10.495306 16.450001 29.313746 63.478455 195.791972 2313.668092
2026-04-19 6.890686 10.239093 16.158886 29.115585 64.324319 207.514467 3107.533575